Usage Rate & Heliocentrism

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Intro & Inspo

With Tuesday’s 97-94 loss to the Heat, the Atlanta Hawks have been eliminated from the playoffs. After averaging 15/6/5 (pts/ast/reb) on 32/18/79 percent shooting, questions arise about the ability to win a title with Trae Young as the lead guy. In a league dominated on the wing, can a point guard really lead a team to a tile? When looking at finals MVPs the last point guard to win it was Tony Parker fifteen years ago in 2007. Even with the history of the position I do not believe Trae Young’s stature is his biggest hindrance from winning playoff games. His biggest hindrance is the heliocentric style of play and usage rate.


Definitions & Manalytics

Usage rate for a player in the NBA is generally defined as the percentage of possessions that end in that player taking a shot/free throw or turning the ball over. Having one high usage rate player is a staple of Heliocentrism which is an offensive philosophy where the “best player” runs a high pick and roll, or isolation to generate almost everything for their team. The poster boy for this would be James Harden in Houston. While in theory it makes sense to force the ball to your best player as much as possible to increase efficiency, the results vary drastically between regular season and playoffs. This style of play works great in the regular season and falters in the playoffs. Turns out when some of the brightest basketball minds get two weeks to prepare a defense for this style of play, it can be stopped. This is mainly due to the lack of counter adjustments available to the heliocentric team. The ball dominant guy is not used to being offball and the role players are not used to creating their own shots. When looking through the historical data we see an interesting trend regarding usage rate and what that could mean for the future of the 2022 playoffs.


Historical Data & Interpretation

Since 2000 the highest regular season usage rate for a player on the championship team is 32.5%. That number is shared by Dwyane Wade (2006) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2021). Five players on playoff teams this year had a usage rate above 32.5%. Those five players are:


  • Joel Embiid (37.5%)
  • Luka Doncic (36.8%)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (34.0%)
  • Trae Young (33.3%)
  • Ja Morant (33.0%)


If you bet on any of these teams to win the finals I would recommend cashing out but if it hits, congrats you successfully bet on something that has not occurred this millennium. Also in case you were curious the lowest top usage rate on a title team is Kevin Garnett at 25.5% and no lead player falls under that. Pascal Siakam is the closest at 25.7%. BREAKING NEWS basketball is a team game and getting teammates involved is actually beneficial. 


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