Miami’s Vice, a Shooting Star?

With Tuesday’s 115-105 victory against the Atlanta Hawks, the Heat have won eight out of their last nine with the only loss being the rest game against Orlando. Jimmy Butler has been at the center of that run averaging 27/5/4 (Pts/Reb/Ast) with 59/46/79 splits. The number that jumps out to me is his 46% from three. That simply has not been Jimmy’s calling card in Miami where he has shot 24% from three (down from 34% everywhere else). The historical data indicates this hot streak from Butler is a necessity if the Heat want to win the title

Historical Data & Trivia

Since 2000, there have only been 4 players to lead their team in playoff scoring and win the title while shooting under 35% from three during the regular season and postseason. Take a minute to guess who they are (three should be very easy and one is a tad tricker).

The four players are:

• Tim Duncan (Three times)
• Shaquille O’Neal (Three Times)
• Kevin Garnett
• Giannis Antetokounmpo.

What separates Jimmy from these guys…. ? Only about five inches. Their size makes it impossible to prevent them from getting in the paint. This allowed the lack of three ball to not matter. Jimmy on the other hand is smaller and on the wrong side of 30 so defenders can keep him from getting to the rack (just watch the Bucks series last year). Without an effective jumper it allows defenders to sag off making passing lanes smaller and makes the pick and roll easier to defend. I know some think Jimmy’s midrange makes up for that but unfortunately that is not the case. While Jimmy can be somewhat effective from midrange where he shot 46% on standard midrange and 34% on deep midrange, those shots play perfectly into opposings teams’ defensive strategy and cannot sustain a champion. This leaves Jimmy and the Heat with two options, either Jimmy continues to hit threes, or someone else should be the leading scorer.

Option One, The Hot Streak Continues:

Jimmy would not be the first guy to carry a hot streak from three throughout the playoffs. Dwade, Kobe, and AD all raised their 3pt percentage up to 35% after failing to meet that criteria in the regular season. Jimmy could do the same and it would still be a smaller jump then Dwade who in 2006 shot 17% from three in the regular season but 38% in the playoffs. I personally think this is the most realistic scenario, where Jimmy takes advantage of his low volume and the soft coverage to consistently bury a triple or two every game. But the other door is a little more fun when thinking of the future of the Heat.

Option Two, A New Leading Man?

If Jimmy isn’t the leading scorer I wonder who it could be? Bam Adebayo? No he’s too short and can't shoot. Kyle Lowry? No, he can’t be a leading scorer at his age and skill set. Before the reveal an honorable mention to the ghost of Victor Oladipo but the answer is obviously the Boy Wonder himself, Tyler Herro. Herro can score and pass in the pick and roll masterfully, shoot from all three levels, and has the on ball creativity to get his own shot. Tyler and Jimmy shot within 2% of each other from 0-3 feet, 3-10 feet, and 10-16 feet. But Herro distances himself by shooting 6% better on deep twos and 16% better on threes. While some of that is due to Jimmy being stuck with the better defender, Herro’s growth from two cannot be overlooked. While a changing of the guard is unlikely this season Tyler Herro could provide the Heat with the shooting star they so desperately need in Butler.